By Agric Reporter
Zimbabwe has begun preparing for a potentially severe drought by urging livestock farmers to keep enough feed to sustain their animals for at least two years, as weather forecasts point to a heightened risk of El Niño during the 2026/27 farming season.
The warning was delivered by Dr Dumisani Kutywayo, Chief Director of the Directorate of Research, Education and Specialist Services, at the directorate’s second-quarter review meeting in Harare. He said hotter and drier conditions could place heavy pressure on grazing land, water supplies and livestock productivity, and called on farmers to act before pasture shortages become critical.
“Farmers are being urged to stock sufficient feed reserves to last at least two years,” he said.
The advice comes at a time when Zimbabwe is still dealing with the effects of the 2023/24 drought, one of the most damaging recent agricultural seasons. Poor rainfall reduced crop production, weakened grazing areas and left many communities struggling to find water for people and animals. The government recorded more than 40 000 cattle deaths during that drought, while the country’s experience of the 1991/92 El Niño remains an even darker warning.
“During the 1991/1992 El Niño more than one million cattle reportedly died. During the 2023/2024 drought over 40 000 cattle deaths were recorded. We cannot afford to repeat these losses,” he said.
The Meteorological Services Department has placed the country on an early alert after global forecasting centres indicated an 88 to 94 per cent chance of El Niño developing during the 2026/27 rainy season. Historical patterns show that El Niño conditions in Zimbabwe have been associated with a 65 per cent probability of below-normal rainfall.
The early warning does not yet provide a final province-by-province rainfall forecast. Meteorologists have said that confidence in seasonal predictions can change before the start of the rains because of the so-called spring predictability barrier, a period when ocean and atmospheric conditions can shift quickly. The department has been expected to issue a National Climate Outlook after the regional climate outlook process, giving farmers more detailed information on the likely timing and distribution of rainfall.
For now, the risk is clear even though the precise provincial probabilities are still awaited. Matabeleland, Masvingo and the drier parts of the Midlands are among the areas where farmers traditionally face greater moisture stress and depend heavily on grazing, livestock sales and small grains. Parts of Manicaland, especially rain-shadow areas, also have a more fragile rainfall position. Mashonaland generally has stronger crop-producing potential, but a poor season there would have wider consequences because the provinces supply much of the country’s grain and support large numbers of farming households.
The expected outlook matters not only because of the total amount of rain, but also because of when it arrives and how evenly it falls. A late start can delay planting and leave pastures without enough time to recover. Long dry spells can damage crops after germination, reduce natural grazing and force farmers to buy feed at higher prices. Heavy rain in a short period may fill dams but still fail to restore grazing if it runs off hard, dry ground or is followed by a prolonged hot spell.
The country’s most recent season showed how quickly conditions can change. The 2025/26 agricultural season began with encouraging rainfall in many areas, and the 2026 harvest was expected to improve food access nationally. However, excessive rain in some locations was followed by a lengthy dry spell, leaving certain fields waterlogged early in the season and moisture-stressed later. Some households in affected areas faced reduced yields, while poor farmers remained exposed to rising costs for fuel, fertiliser and transport.
Water and pasture conditions improved in a number of areas during the first part of 2026, supporting livestock and rural incomes. That improvement, however, does not remove the need for preparation. If the coming season starts late or rainfall becomes erratic, farmers may move quickly from relatively good grazing conditions to a serious shortage of grass, crop residues and drinking water.
Kutywayo said pasture seed should be made available so that farmers can produce fodder before the crisis deepens. He also called for greater use of livestock breeds adapted to Zimbabwe’s harsh conditions, including Mashona, Boran, Tuli and Nguni cattle. The government is seeking to conserve and multiply indigenous breeds, including local chickens and goats, which have shown greater resilience under heat and moisture stress.
