VP Chiwenga faces uphill task in Zanu-PF succession battle ahead of Mutare Convention
By Staff Reporter
VICE President Constantino Chiwenga faces a mammoth task ahead of the Mutare convention with analysts predicting that his bid to secure the presidential seat is effectively far from secure.
The second in charge is widely seen as the next successor when President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s third term limit of office expires in 2028 according to the Constitution of Zimbabwe.
The former army commander who played a pivotal role in the 2017 military-assisted transition that brought Mnangagwa to power, the stakes could not be higher. Constitutionally, Mnangagwa’s second and final term ends in 2028. Many in the party have long viewed Chiwenga as the natural successor, given his influence in the military and his own presidential ambitions.
Yet his position is far from secure. Analysts note that Mnangagwa has spent years methodically neutralising potential rivals. Key military figures once aligned with Chiwenga have been reassigned or retired, while the party’s powerful provincial chairpersons increasingly owe their allegiance to Mnangagwa.
“Chiwenga faces an impossible choice,” said political analyst Dr. Ibbo Mandaza. “If he openly resists, he risks being sidelined or humiliated. If he quietly accepts, he forfeits any realistic path to the presidency.”
The succession battle is not a simple two-man contest. Multiple factions have emerged, each with its own calculations. Younger party leaders such as Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube and Information Minister Jenfan Muswere are said to be aligning with Mnangagwa, betting that his continued rule will create opportunities for their own ascendancy in a post-Mnangagwa landscape.
Meanwhile, war veterans and some elements within the security establishment remain sympathetic to Chiwenga, viewing him as a guarantor of their influence and privileges.
“Zanu PF is a coalition of interests held together by power and patronage,” observed University of Zimbabwe political scientist Eldred Masunungure. “The 2030 gambit forces every player to declare their loyalties, and that is inherently destabilising.”
All eyes now turn to Mutare, where the annual conference is expected to formalise the provinces’ resolutions. While official agendas are closely guarded, party insiders predict heated debates behind closed doors. Whether Chiwenga will mount a challenge, strike a compromise, or remain silent will shape Zimbabwe’s political trajectory for years.
“If Chiwenga capitulates, Mnangagwa will be virtually unassailable,” said Mandaza. “But if he resists and gains support, we could see a repeat of the factional warfare that consumed Zanu PF in the Mugabe era.”
